Analyst Warns Apple’s first foldable iPhone Could be Hard to Get at Launch

Apple’s long-rumoured first foldable iPhone may be in short supply when it finally arrives, with an early production ramp that could leave many would-be buyers waiting weeks for delivery.

According to a recent industry survey cited by analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple is expected to face manufacturing bottlenecks when it begins producing the foldable device, often referred to as the “iPhone Ultra” or “iPhone Fold,” toward the end of the third quarter of 2026.

Kuo believes demand for Apple’s first foldable smartphone will be strong, but estimates that the company will be able to produce only around 500,000 to 1 million units shortly after launch. That limited initial run is expected to constrain availability, especially if early adopters rush pre-orders as anticipated.

The analyst projects that once Apple works through the early manufacturing challenges, production will accelerate, with total shipments reaching roughly 7 to 8 million units by the end of 2026. In other words, supply may gradually catch up with demand over the months following launch, but the first wave could be tight.

The main reason for the slow start, Kuo says, is complexity: the foldable design is described as highly innovative and more difficult to build at scale than conventional iPhones. He compares the situation to the rollout of the iPhone X, which also struggled with early production due to its then-new OLED all-screen front, notch, and TrueDepth Face ID camera system.

Despite an expected price that could reach up to $2,500, Kuo’s conversations with carriers, sales channels and resellers suggest demand will remain strong through the end of 2026. He predicts that pre-orders will sell out quickly and that delivery lead times of six weeks or more could persist into December.

The tight early supply could also fuel a grey-market premium. Kuo writes that a combination of “scarce initial supply, a highly recognizable design, and an innovative user experience” is likely to support short-term resale markups over the official retail price.

Apple has not confirmed that it is working on a foldable iPhone, nor has it announced a name, price or launch date. The “iPhone Ultra” branding remains purely speculative, and the device is still unofficial and unnamed.

There are, however, some technical breadcrumbs. A recent beta of iOS 27 reportedly includes software hooks that strongly suggest foldable hardware support, including references to “foldState” and “angleDegrees,” along with a variable for the number of built-in displays on a device. Those terms point to an operating system that is at least being prepared to understand different folding positions and multi-display configurations.

On the hardware side, current expectations around the device’s form factor are based on unconfirmed reports. The foldable iPhone is said to feature:

• A 5.5-inch exterior display for use when the phone is folded
• A 7.8-inch interior display when opened, slightly smaller than the 8.3-inch iPad mini

The overall silhouette is rumoured to be squarer than Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold 7 in its folded state, which could translate into a noticeably wider screen area once unfolded.

The main display is expected to use a flexible OLED panel with a laser-drilled metal support plate intended to better distribute mechanical stress while folding. That structure is reportedly aimed at making the crease along the fold line nearly invisible during normal use, addressing one of the most visible trade-offs in many existing foldables.

All of these details, from the name to exact dimensions, remain unconfirmed until Apple formally announces the product. For now, they sit firmly in the category of informed speculation based on supply chain checks and software clues rather than official specifications.

Kuo’s report underlines two broad themes: Apple appears to be preparing for a complex new hardware category that will test its manufacturing muscle, and if the forecasts are accurate, its first foldable iPhone could be one of the most difficult Apple devices to buy at launch in years.