For the first time since early 2023, Apple and Tesla have both posted year-over-year growth in mainland China, hinting that the country’s battered premium-consumer segment may be thawing faster than analysts expected.
Counterpoint Research’s preliminary Q2 ledger shows iPhone sales in China rising 8 % year-on-year, the brand’s first positive quarter after seven straight declines. Researchers credit May price cuts on the iPhone 16 line—rolled out a week before the 618 shopping festival—and Beijing’s trade-in subsidy that let consumers recoup up to RMB 1,200 on older models. The lift came despite Huawei’s continued ascent; its Mate 70 family still out-shipped Apple over the same period.
Two days later the China Passenger Car Association reported 71,599 Shanghai-built Teslas sold (domestic + export) in June, up 0.8 % versus last year and 16 % over May—Tesla’s first annual gain since September 2024. The rebound followed incremental incentives: a ¥5,000 Model Y loyalty rebate, a lower-priced long-range Model 3, and a “pay-later” Full Self-Driving bundle that cut monthly payments. Xiaomi’s delayed YU7 SUV launch also took pressure off showrooms.
Common drivers behind both rebounds
Factor | Apple impact | Tesla impact |
---|---|---|
Targeted discounts timed to 618 festival | Average iPhone street price fell ~8 %, pulling forward upgrades | Loyalty rebates brought Model Y starting cost below key ¥250k psychological band |
Government subsidy programmes | Trade-in bonuses covered up to 15 % of a new handset | Local governments in Shanghai & Guangzhou extended NEV purchase tax breaks |
Supply-chain localisation | 60 % of iPhone 16 Pro units now China-assembled, allowing agile promo pricing | Shanghai Gigafactory switched to LFP packs for Long-Range Model 3, reducing BOM |
Competitive delays | Huawei’s Mate 70 inventory remains constrained by Kirin yields | Xiaomi YU7 pushed to October, BYD Seal 06 supply tight on blade-battery ramp |
An 8 % iPhone rebound and a 0.8 % Tesla uptick hardly mean a return to 2021’s hyper-growth, but they challenge the narrative that China’s high-end consumer is tapped out. Shoppers still buy flagship gadgets—if the value proposition is explicit, subsidies are on the table and rivals stumble on yield or logistics.
What to watch next
- Tariff risk: Washington’s threatened 25 % levy on iPhones made outside the U.S. (if invoked) could erase Apple’s pricing flexibility as early as Q4.
- Second-half promotions: Tesla historically cuts deeper in Q3; maintaining June momentum without new discounts would signal true demand recovery.
- Huawei volume: If Kirin chip supply normalises, Apple’s 8 % bump could evaporate fast.
- Local EV launches: Should Xiaomi hit its revised October build target for the YU7 SUV, Tesla’s showroom traffic gains may prove short-lived.
For now, Apple’s modest handset resurgence and Tesla’s 71,599-unit snap-back offer a data-driven counterpoint to doom-and-gloom takes on China’s premium market. Discounts, subsidies and timely product tweaks still move the needle—proof that, even amid economic uncertainty, Chinese consumers will rally to global brands that meet them halfway on price and availability.
Discover more from TechBooky
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.