Lebara’s decision to wade into the Nigerian market with a brand-new “0724” prefix is bold, but it also looks like a spectacular missed opportunity. A tie-up—or even a full-blown acquisition—of 9mobile would have given the UK-backed MVNO instant national coverage, spectrum, and a few million customers who are already desperate for a rescue plan. Instead, Lebara must persuade Nigerians to adopt an unfamiliar code, build distribution from scratch, and fight for tiny slivers of wallet share in an economy where real incomes are still being chewed up by inflation that hovers above 23 percent.
9mobile, once Etisalat Nigeria, is hanging by a thread. As recently as 2015 the operator boasted 23 million subscribers and a 15 percent market share; today it is clinging to roughly 3.2 million active lines and just 2 percent of the market. Over the past 20 months alone more than 10 million customers have either ported away or tossed their SIM cards entirely. NCC port-out data shows the bleeding continues: in January 2025, 6,700 numbers left 9mobile in a single month—triple the defections suffered by any rival.
Those numbers may look grim, but, strategically, 9mobile is still an asset: it holds national GSM, 3G and 4G licences; owns 30 MHz of spectrum across three bands; and—crucially—retains a recognisable 0809 prefix that Nigerians have dialled for 17 years. For a deep-pocketed newcomer such as Lebara, snapping up or partnering with the struggling operator would have delivered turnkey infrastructure, an immediate retail footprint, and regulatory credibility in a market notorious for tough SIM-registration audits. Instead, Lebara must run the regulatory gauntlet alone, negotiate interconnect agreements network-by-network, and bankroll nationwide tower rentals in a country where diesel for base-stations costs more every quarter.
History suggests building a greenfield network here is perilous. Ntel, the LTE-only successor to defunct NITEL, launched in 2016 amid fanfare but never crossed 100,000 paying users; NCC’s latest VOIP tables list barely 2,000 active lines under the brand, and its prized 4G spectrum is now being leased to MTN. If an operator with spectrum, fibre and a legacy name could not survive Nigeria’s brutally competitive field, it is hard to see how a minute-selling MVNO without such assets will fare better.
Market saturation is another head-wind. The four incumbent giants still control more than 96 percent of Nigeria’s 170 million active lines. With inflation squeezing disposable income, average revenue per user is flat-to-declining, and the cheapest data bundles now compete for the same naira as cooking gas and transportation. In that climate, Lebara’s decision to pitch low-cost voice minutes is logical—yet nothing would have broadcast that value proposition faster than reviving 9mobile’s dormant base with headline-grabbing, never-expire minute packs.
There is also the question of trust. Nigerians instinctively associate prefixes with network quality; MTN’s 0803, Airtel’s 0802, Glo’s 0805—these numbers are cultural shorthand. Convincing consumers that 0724 is safe, ubiquitous and port-worthy will take millions of dollars in marketing and months of unglamorous SIM-registration drives. By contrast, a rehabbed 0809 line under the Lebara banner would have signalled continuity and innovation in the same breath. Throw in 9mobile’s battered but serviceable transmission network and its under-utilised customer-service centres across 36 states, and Lebara could have leap-frogged half a decade of ground work.
To be fair, 9mobile is a tangle of debt and boardroom disputes, and any acquisition would have required heavy due-diligence as well as approval from a cautious Nigerian Communications Commission. But Lebara is no stranger to complex deals; its European expansion has involved private-equity owners, cross-border brand licenses and roaming partnerships that dwarf the size of Nigeria’s fourth operator. With fresh capital from Waterland Private Equity and €500-million-plus annual revenue, the MVNO had both the cheque book and the operational know-how to stage a turnaround.
Instead, Lebara will now chase new sign-ups one kiosk at a time while 3.2 million discouraged 9mobile users continue shopping for a lifeline. If the UK brand stumbles under Nigeria’s regulatory weight or simply fails to hit nationwide coverage quickly enough, analysts may look back on 2025 as the year it overlooked the easiest, and perhaps last, bargain buy in African telecoms. For 9mobile, the clock keeps ticking; for Lebara, the opportunity cost of bypassing a ready-made network may soon become painfully clear.