Telcos Grow, But Nigeria Sheds 1 Million Internet Users in Half a Year

The NCC is required to monitor and report on the state of the Nigerian telecommunications industry, provide statistical analyses, and identify industry trends regarding services, tariffs, operators, technology, subscribers, issues of competition and dominance, etc. in order to determine areas that would require regulatory intervention, in accordance with Section 89 Subsection 3(d) of the Nigerian Communications Act 2003 (NCA 2003).

As a result, the Commission periodically carries out research, surveys, and publications on the telecom sector. Additionally, as stipulated in the licence agreements, telecom operators are required to submit such data to the NCC for analysis and publication as seen from the NCC site.

The telecommunications industry in Nigeria is facing a troubling paradox: while MNOs are seeing historically high data revenue growth, the growing cost of smartphones is delaying internet penetration and endangering the country’s efforts to close the digital divide.

In the first half of 2025, Nigeria’s total number of internet subscriptions fell by more than one million, despite an increase in data usage by current customers. According to data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), there were 140.6 million active internet subscriptions by June, down from 141.6 million in January.

A graphical trend in the mobile GSM Internet Subscriptions from Jan 2025 to June 2025 is seen below.

Due to regulatory obstacles, economic challenges, and concerns about device affordability, telcos are finding it increasingly difficult to maintain subscriber growth, as evidenced by the decline in internet users. With 76.5 million internet users as of June 2025, MTN Nigeria remains the industry leader, followed by Airtel (49.4 million), Globacom (13.7 million), and 9mobile (1.08 million).

However, while a time when digital expansion should be speeding, the number of internet users nationwide decreased marginally, despite MTN’s data revenues rising by 69.2% year over year and Airtel’s active data user base increasing to 29.3 million.

Here is also another graphical illustration by percentage contribution as MTN and Airtel are seen be controlling Over 86% of Nigeria’s Internet Subscribers in the telecom space.

Millions of Nigerians are also finding smartphones to be unaffordable as it is over pricey. Previously priced between ₦120,000 and ₦180,000 at the beginning of the year, entry-level devices such as the Xiaomi Redmi A5, Infinix Hot 50i, and Itel S24 are now priced between ₦200,000 and ₦220,000. High-end smartphones like Apple’s iPhone 15 Pro Max 1TB surpassed ₦2.3 million, while mid-range gadgets like Samsung’s Galaxy A-series broke the ₦400,000 barrier.

Within six months, device prices have increased by 25% due to a combination of global supply chain disruptions, inflationary pressures, and naira depreciation. Older iPhone models, such as the iPhone 7 Plus and iPhone 8 (standard), which were once reasonably priced alternatives, are now priced between ₦130,000 and ₦170,000, excluding lower-income customers who previously relied on used handsets to access digital services.

Also market analysis from Canalys shows that between January and June 2025, smartphone sales volumes fell by 7%.

The Digital exclusion has been made worse by data tariffs as the cost of 1GB of data increased from 287.50 to 431.25 when the NCC approved a 50% data price hike in January 2025. The hikes were considerably more pronounced for higher-volume bundles.

The effect was sharp and instantaneous. online subscription growth slowed, and by February, the industry registered a net loss of roughly one million active online users. Despite a little uptick in March, many users were compelled to reduce or stop using the internet due to persistently high data charges. New activations had come to a crawl by June.

Subscription patterns on a month to month basis show a clear change in user behaviour as users are now using data more sparingly and only when necessary. Many users started limiting their data use to necessary tasks solely, which reduced their discretionary use. The addressable market was further constrained by the higher pricing, which made it harder for prospective new customers to enter the market even as current smartphone owners raised their average data consumption.

With the growth pattern in spite of policy setbacks and in order to switch to a new authentication platform, the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) halted National Identification Number (NIN) verifications in June. Despite a high demand for connectivity, this essentially frozen the onboarding of new internet subscribers by stopping new SIM activations across all networks.

Telcos are seeing an increase in data usage within their current subscriber base in spite of these policy issues. From 58.3% in December 2024 to 62.6% in H1 2025, MTN Nigeria’s smartphone penetration increased to over 53 million smartphone users. Within six months, the company added 3.3 million active data subscribers, which fuelled its 69.2% annual rise in data income.

Here is also a graphical representation on the internet base usage nationally which has declined for globacom and 9mobile service providers while MTN and Airtel has a surge increase as stated between June 2024 to June 2025 in the space of 1 year.

Similar trends were seen with Airtel Nigeria. Of its 53.6 million subscribers, over 27.5 million use smartphones, representing a 51.4% smartphone penetration rate. The average monthly data consumption increased from 7.3GB in Q2 2024 to 9.3GB in Q2 2025, and Airtel’s data customer base grew to 29.3 million in that same quarter.

The amount of data used by each user is rapidly increasing. This conceals a more problematic dynamic, though. The onboarding pipeline for new internet customers is getting thinner. Nigerians with low incomes are being priced out of digital inclusion, which raises questions about the sector’s long-term viability.

Telcos are seeing an increase in data usage within their current subscriber base in spite of these policy issues. From 58.3% in December 2024 to 62.6% in H1 2025, MTN Nigeria’s smartphone penetration increased to over 53 million smartphone users. Within six months, the company added 3.3 million active data subscribers, which fuelled its 69.2% annual rise in data income.