Contrary to the popular opinion that the bigger a volcanic eruption is, the worse it will be for society and humans, a team of experts have claimed that too much focus is placed on the risks of rare but massive volcanic bursts. They argue that too little attention is paid to the latent ripple effects of minor explosions in strategic parts of the planet.
The experts, led by researchers from the University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), have highlighted seven high risk areas in Taiwan, North Africa, the North Atlantic, and North western United States. Several small but active volcanoes exist side by side with crucial human infrastructure in these locations. These clusters pose high global hazards if they ever erupt.
Dr. Lara Mani from CSER, lead author of the report published today (August 6, 2021) in the journal Nature Communications, said that“ Even a minor eruption in one of the areas we identify could erupt enough ash or generate large enough tremors to disrupt networks that are central to global supply chains and financial systems.”
Dr. Mani and her team believe that smaller eruptions, not the larger ones are capable of producing ash clouds, mudflows, and landslides that could destroy undersea cables and lead to economic, agricultural and political devastation. The team cites the recent occurrence of the Eyjafjallajökull Volcano in Iceland, a location near Europe’s major “pinch point”. A magnitude 4 eruption led to the loss of US$5 billion to the global economy when the ash plumes were carried by north westerly winds close into the European airspace.
Contrarily, the Mount Pinatubo event in the Philippines in 1991, although a hundred times greater in scale than the Eyjafjallajökull event, caused economic implications that would have been estimated at US$740 million if it had occurred in 2021 – damage which is less than a fifth of the loss incurred in Iceland.
One of the seven “pinch point” areas the experts have identified is the northern tip of Taiwan. This point is the location of some of the largest producers of electronic chips. The experts note that if one of these relatively small eruptions ever occurs, it would incapacitate the area, thereby bringing activities in the global tech industry to a halt.
Mani and her team have also branded the Mediterranean as a focal point. She says, “We saw what a six-day closure to the Suez Canal did earlier this year when a single stuck container ship cost up to ten billion dollars a week in global trade.”
Also worthy of note is the Pacific Northwest, specifically in the state of Washington. Eruptions here could induce ash clouds that would shroud Seattle, thereby shutting down airports and seaports. Other points identified by the researchers include the Indonesian archipelago and the Luzon Strait in the South China Sea, two of the busiest shipping passages in the world. The Indonesian archipelago alone controls the movement of 40% of global trade and would lead to major disruptions if ever hit.
“It’s time to change how we view extreme volcanic risk,” the lead researcher emphasized.
“We need to move away from thinking in terms of colossal eruptions destroying the world, as portrayed in Hollywood films. The more probable scenarios involve lower-magnitude eruptions interacting with our societal vulnerabilities and cascading us towards catastrophe,” she added.