We are back in familiar territory as AI now predicts that human polls may be wrong again. Back in 2016 when the United States President Donald Trump ran against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, polls predicted victory for the would be first female President of the United States. But an AI system precited otherwise and the rest is history as Donald Trump has been President for nearly four years. This time though, AI prediction is not about who wins or loses but rather a much closer race than what the human polls say. This is based on social media emotions and posts which analysts say shows a much closer race.
This is based on conclusions by Expert.ai a company with Italy and the United States which used sentiment analysis over a period of time to determine how people are reacting to election issues online.
This time though, AI prediction is not about who wins or loses but rather a much closer race than what the human polls say. This is based on social media emotions and posts which analysts say shows a much closer race. #Trump #Biden #AI Click To Tweet
Right now, most polls put Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden ahead of Trump in national polls but more importantly ahead in swing states. The American presidential election outcome is determined by a candidate surpassing 270 electoral college votes and not by popular votes because you see Hillary Clinton won the popular vote and lost the election while Donald Trump lost the popular vote but won more than 270 electoral college votes to win the election. Right now, most polls put Biden ahead by 12 points but Expert.ai thinks that margin is too wide. They put Mr. Biden ahead 50.2 percent to Trump’s 47.3 percent and if this is to be believed, that puts Biden ahead within the margin of error which means Trump could still pull ahead easily.
What this also means is that Biden may not win in a landslide after all and that his eventual victory should it happen will be much closer than analysts think.
Before you dispute Expert.ai’s findings, they successfully predicted that the United Kingdom would leave the European Union and look how that turned out.
So how did they come about this? Well they say Trump being the incumbent was the focus of social media activity regarding the election with more than 60 percent of posts about him. But this is not too different from what human pollsters are saying in that the election this year is a referendum on Trump which is seeing even local Republican strongholds shifting. But they say only about 17 percent was about Biden. That said, Biden got much more favourable emotions by many social media users which is why he is ahead slightly in their polling. So, Biden polled higher on words like hope and success but Trump was more associated with terms like fear and hatred. But they say Trump ranked higher when it came to action.
They looked up over 500,000 Twitter posts to arrive at these conclusions. They used over 84 emotion labels and ranked them based on their intensity over time on scale of 1 to 100. These emotions are then classified under positive or negative.
But as with every election, it is not complete until you go out and vote and for Americans, it is November 3.