Apple Poised to Overtake Samsung as Global Smartphone Leader

For the first time in more than a decade, Apple is on track to reclaim the crown as the world’s leading smartphone maker, edging past long-time leader Samsung. Market intelligence firm Counterpoint Research forecasts that Apple will end 2025 with roughly a 19.4 % global market share in smartphone shipments a position it hasn’t held since 2011. 

The main spark behind this shift is the widespread popularity of the 2025 iPhone line-up, particularly the iPhone 17 series. According to Counterpoint, iPhone shipments are expected to grow around 10 % this year, significantly outpacing Samsung’s projected ~4.6 % growth for its smartphone models. 

Analysts point to several factors behind Apple’s resurgence. The iPhone 17 line has reportedly resonated strongly especially in core markets such as the U.S. and China prompting a wave of upgrades from users who bought phones during earlier pandemic-driven sales cycles.  Additionally, macroeconomic conditions have helped; a weaker dollar and reduction in US–China trade tensions appear to have boosted demand in emerging markets where smartphones remain expensive for many buyers. 

Another subtle but influential trend is the large pool of second-hand iPhones in circulation. Between 2023 and mid-2025, Counterpoint estimates that around 358 million used iPhones changed hands many of which could soon upgrade to new hardware, further boosting Apple’s potential sales. 

If projections hold, 2025 will mark the first time since 2011 that Apple finishes the year atop the global smartphone ladder. And the momentum might extend beyond this year. Analysts suggest Apple’s lead could last until 2029 supported by expected upcoming releases such as a foldable iPhone and a more affordable “iPhone 17e,” plus the broader premium-smartphone push that plays to Apple’s strengths. 

For Samsung, this marks a significant challenge. Once seen as almost unshakeable at the top, its slower growth and the strength of Apple’s latest upgrades highlight how competitive and volatile, the smartphone market has become. The shift underscores that hardware cycles and product reception still matters deeply in a world increasingly defined by features, ecosystems, and brand loyalty.

For consumers, the change may not feel dramatic in day-to-day use. But for the broader smartphone industry, it signals a new era of smartphone dominance one led by replacement cycles, strong premium demand, and strategic positioning rather than sheer volume. Apple’s return to the top spot may reshape supply chains, competition, and what “success” looks like for phone makers in the coming years.